Breaking Balls

Whether you find yourself talking baseball in a fog-enshrouded coffee shop in the City by the Bay, or whether your wits are being blunted by the endless posturing and pontificating of the ESPN drones, you will be hard-pressed to find anybody voicing the opinion that the Giants ought to keep the aging media-circus that is Barry Bonds on the books for 2008. If anything, there seems to be a consensus that Barry's dismissal is a welcome harbinger of philosophical change in a franchise that has clung nostalgically to its quasi-glorious past while refusing to admit that its day in the sun has passed. Now I am not arguing that the Giants do not desperately need to get younger and begin the process of revitalizing their roster; this is an indisputable truth brought strikingly into relief by the success of the Giants' divisional rivals on this front (see: Troy Tulowitski, James Loney, Justin Upton, etc.). What I am arguing is that, by prematurely giving Bonds the boot, the Giants are sacrificing an opportunity to compete in 2008 without interfering with their future prosperity.

I can already hear my readers guffawing at the preposterous suggestion the lowly Giants, currently twelve games out of fourth-place NL West and lacking any impact reinforcements from the farm, could potentially field a competitive ballclub next year. Well I believe it can be done, and here is how.

The Giants will be free of 14 million dollars of salary for the 2008 season. There are 29 million dollars of expiring contracts (Bonds 16m, Feliz 5m, Vizquel 4m, Matheny 2m, Klesko 2m) and 15 million dollars of internal salary increases, highlighted by Barry Zito's and Randy Winn's 4 million dollar raises for the 2008 campaigns. What all this means is that the Giants are on the hook for 76 million in player salaries for next season. The past three seasons the Giants' average annual payroll has been almost exactly 90 million.

The first step the Giants need to take is to dump the salaries of Ray Durham (7.5m) and Dave Roberts (6.5m). Now I am not naive enough to think that the Giants will be able to find anybody willing to eat either of these players' entire salaries (even in return for vitually nothing), but I do believe they should be able to get out from under around 8 million of salary or so. Rajai Davis will take over as the Giants' everyday centerfielder and Kevin Fransden will take over as their everyday second-basemen. Next year I believe Davis projects as a .275 hitter with 10 HR and 40 SBs and Fransden as a .260-15 HR guy. Essentially they are cheap replacement-level players with some possibility of upside.

The next step is to let Feliz, Vizquel, and Klesko walk. This clears about 10 million in salary. Their replacements will be addressed below.

Step three is to trade Noah Lowry to the Pirates for Adam LaRoche. Noah Lowry has been pitching way over his head to date (his 1.55 WHIP and 1:1 K-BB ratio indicates his 14-8 record and 3.92 ERA are flukes), and I am eager for the Giants to trade him while he is still a valuable commodity. The twenty-six year old Lowry is only due 14 million over the next three seasons, so any team in baseball would be glad to add him to their rotation. The LaRoche trade is logical as the Giants need a first-baseman and the Pirates need pitching. Moreover, LaRoche's presence in Pittsburgh has become redundant given the arrival of 1B/RF Steven Pearce and the looming presence of mega-prospect Andrew McCuthen, who will eventually push Pearce to 1B. LaRoche will take over for Klesko at first base and bat fifth.

Step four is to sign Alex Rodriguez to a eight-year, 240 million dollar contract. The Giants ought to be able to lure A-Rod by offering him 30 million per year and giving him the opportunity to play shortstop in a city where he will be appreciated and welcomed into the city's canon of sports heroes that includes Mays, Marchical, McCovey, Montana, Rice, Young, and Bonds. A-Rod will take over at shortstop for Omar Vizquel, and Rich Aurilia will take over for Pedro Feliz at third base.

Step five is to re-sign Bonds at a discount rate. I have absolutely no doubt that Bonds would be willing to sign with the Giants for significantly less money (maybe 5m?) if the Giants signed his buddy A-Rod to play alongside him during his farewell season. There is also no doubt that this would be an intelligent baseball move for the Giants. At 43, Bonds is still among the ten most productive hitters in baseball. He is leads both leagues by a wide margin in OBP (.483), he is 13th in overall SLG (.570), and, remarkably, he is 18th in VORP despite only playing in about 75% of the Giants' games. These gaudy statistics are made even more impressive by the fact that Bonds was protected in the lineup this year by a combination of Benji Molina, Ray Durham, and Rich Aurilia. Just imagine what kind of hell Bonds could wreak in 2008 with A-Rod hitting behind him and the Giants competing for a playoff spot.

If the Giants follow this formula, their payroll for the 2008 season would increase to the 100-110m range (depending mostly on how much they were able to sign Bonds for). This 11% payroll increase isn't too far out of line with the annual inflation rate of MLB player salaries and is a necessary expenditure for the Giants to retain their competitive edge. I believe the following hypothetical lineup for the 2008 Giants represents a team that would compete for the NL pennant:

CF- Rajai Davis
RF- Randy Winn
LF- Barry Bonds
SS- Alex Rodriguez
1B- Adam LaRoche
C- Benji Molina
SS- Rich Aurilia
2B- Kevin Fransden

SP- Tim Lincecum
SP- Matt Cain
SP- Barry Zito
SP- Kevin Correia
SP- Pat Misch/Jonathan Sanchez
CL- Brian Wilson

The problem with the Giants' new "let the kids play" strategy, emblematized by their divorce from Bonds, is the simple fact that their kids can't play. Letting the kids play is a fine strategy when you have a farm system full of Carlos Gonzalez's, Aaron Cunningham's, Justin Upton's, Matt Antonelli's, Chase Headley's, Andy LaRoche's, Ian Stewart's, etc., like their NL-West rivals, but the Giants are running the risk of fielding the worst offensive team in baseball history if they run out Dan Ortmeier, Kevin Fransden, Nate Schierholtz, and Rajai Davis in '08 without signing either Bonds or A-Rod. Signing Bonds and A-Rod for 2008 buys the Giants time to accumulate some legitimate young offensive talent while still fielding a competitive (and potentially pennant-contending) squad. The Giants tied their hands on the possibility of bringing Bonds back cheap in '08 by prematurely proclaiming their unbending will to sever ties.