Wednesday, September 12, 2007
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Triple-A and Pitching Prospects
Yesterday I had the chance to head out to The Shrine On Airline to catch game one of the Pacific Coast League Championship Series. The Sacramento River Cats (Triple-A affiliate for the Athletics) were in town to play the Zephyrs (Triple-A affiliate for the Mets). It was a fun game, even though the Zephyrs lost, as David Newhan hit two line drive home runs. Adam Bostick was on the bump for NOLA and he looked frustratingly good, recording nine strikeouts while hitting two batters (and almost hitting about four more). During warmups, he more than once threw the ball several yards to the right of the plate. All in all, an enjoyable minor league baseball experience.
If I was expecting to see Mike Pelfrey or Daric Barton this game, however, I was to be disappointed. Both players are now up in the bigs. The game got me thinking, though, about the relative quality of minor league teams, especially during the playoffs. After September 1st, the ranks of minor league rosters gets pretty thin, considering most advanced prospects are called up to the big leagues either to audition for next year or get a taste of competitive baseball. Triple-A is intended to have the highest level of play in the minor leagues, and indeed I'm sure it does. League-wide, there is no doubt that the PCL is a stronger league than, say, the Eastern League is. However, I have noticed a trend in the way teams have been handling prospects, and young pitchers in particular. This year alone, we have seen a remarkable number of hurlers called up either directly from Double-A or after only a very short stint with the Triple-A affiliate. Players like Jair Jurrjens, Kyle Kendrick, Andrew Miller, Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz, and Ian Kennedy have all gotten the call while pitching less than 35 Triple-A innings. Perhaps I'm making this whole phenomenon up, but it seems like such behavior is much more common now than it was even a few years ago. Call it a blip, but it seems to me that such usage patterns turn Triple-A into a sort of bleak River Styx, where the too old and the also-rans wind up--a sort of overflow roster. Meanwhile, the real prospects hone their craft against inferior hitters and subsequently go unpunished for critical flaws like high walk rates.
What could possibly be the explanation for this sort of handling of young pitchers. And, even more perplexingly, how have the above-mentioned pitchers been so successful? As a group this year, their combined major league ERA is an impressive 3.79. But behind those numbers lie some interesting peripheral stats.
The RiverCats try to deal with
Adam Bostick's wild slider
If I was expecting to see Mike Pelfrey or Daric Barton this game, however, I was to be disappointed. Both players are now up in the bigs. The game got me thinking, though, about the relative quality of minor league teams, especially during the playoffs. After September 1st, the ranks of minor league rosters gets pretty thin, considering most advanced prospects are called up to the big leagues either to audition for next year or get a taste of competitive baseball. Triple-A is intended to have the highest level of play in the minor leagues, and indeed I'm sure it does. League-wide, there is no doubt that the PCL is a stronger league than, say, the Eastern League is. However, I have noticed a trend in the way teams have been handling prospects, and young pitchers in particular. This year alone, we have seen a remarkable number of hurlers called up either directly from Double-A or after only a very short stint with the Triple-A affiliate. Players like Jair Jurrjens, Kyle Kendrick, Andrew Miller, Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz, and Ian Kennedy have all gotten the call while pitching less than 35 Triple-A innings. Perhaps I'm making this whole phenomenon up, but it seems like such behavior is much more common now than it was even a few years ago. Call it a blip, but it seems to me that such usage patterns turn Triple-A into a sort of bleak River Styx, where the too old and the also-rans wind up--a sort of overflow roster. Meanwhile, the real prospects hone their craft against inferior hitters and subsequently go unpunished for critical flaws like high walk rates.
What could possibly be the explanation for this sort of handling of young pitchers. And, even more perplexingly, how have the above-mentioned pitchers been so successful? As a group this year, their combined major league ERA is an impressive 3.79. But behind those numbers lie some interesting peripheral stats.
These pitchers' performances suggest that they are outperforming their peripheral stats. If they were veterans, we might say they knew how to pitch out of jams, but the oldest of these guys is 23. This is a sample of some of the best pitching prospects in baseball (especially if you leave out Kendrick and Jurrjens), and yet they still walk a high number of batters and strike out only an average amount. So what do you think? Do they need more seasoning? Are they benefitting from their first trip around the league (and thus the advantage of facing batters who have never seen their pitches before)? Or are they just working out their kinks in the majors instead of Triple-A, where they can actually help their teams (all of which remain in contention)?IP ER K BB K/BB ERA
223.3 94 142 84 1.69 3.79
Comments:
You really bring up an interesting point about pitchers (and top flight hitters, like Justin Upton, Ryan Zimmerman, Delmon Young, Cameron Maybin, etc.) missing out on that last polishing stage of development. First of all, I agree that control issues often remain problematic for these pitchers (and usually strike zone control for the batters). However, I think we should be more impressed by the success accomplished by these players. Removing Kendrick's somewhat flukey 100 Wang-ish innings from your pitching calculation, we have the following line:
123.3 IP, 105 K, 62 BB, 1.69 K/BB, 3.80 ERA
That shows a substantially higher strikeout rate, despite unchanged K/BB and ERA. If anything, this further highlights the control problems suffered by most AA pitchers skipped to the majors, as the walk rate is sky high. To me, it is a question of pure stuff balanced against polish. Perhaps the ridiculous talent of the few who are bumped to the majors counters their lack of experience to produce acceptable results. Your questions are apt. Are we lowering their ceilings by denying these players those last 140 innings of development, or are we lengthening their careers by logging those innings where it really matters?
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123.3 IP, 105 K, 62 BB, 1.69 K/BB, 3.80 ERA
That shows a substantially higher strikeout rate, despite unchanged K/BB and ERA. If anything, this further highlights the control problems suffered by most AA pitchers skipped to the majors, as the walk rate is sky high. To me, it is a question of pure stuff balanced against polish. Perhaps the ridiculous talent of the few who are bumped to the majors counters their lack of experience to produce acceptable results. Your questions are apt. Are we lowering their ceilings by denying these players those last 140 innings of development, or are we lengthening their careers by logging those innings where it really matters?
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